China is the main perpetrator of foreign interference in Canada that poses a serious and growing threat to the country’s electoral system and the public’s confidence in it, concludes the first report from the inquiry looking into the meddling.
The commission, led by Quebec Court of Appeal Justice Marie-Josée Hogue, is assessing interference by China, Russia and other foreign states and non-state actors, including any potential effects on the 2019 and 2021 general elections.
Justice Hogue’s first report looks at the flow of foreign-interference assessments to senior government decision-makers, including elected officials, during the two elections.
She concludes that foreign interference didn’t affect the overall election outcome but there is a “reasonable possibility” it affected riding-level results in a small number of cases. She also says that candidate nomination races are a “gateway” for foreign interference.
“Regardless of whether actual electoral results are affected, the problem of foreign interference is pervasive, insidious, and harmful to Canada’s democratic institutions,” she writes.
The revelations and events that led to the foreign-interference inquiry
Justice Hogue also finds that elected officials are suspicious of information gathered by Canada’s intelligence agencies and suggested those officials “may prefer to refrain from acting when such information is brought to their attention.”
Her report does not weigh in on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his senior staff’s handling of the information they received and what actions they did or didn’t take in response.
Foreign interference did not change overall election result, but it tainted riding-level votes
Justice Hogue finds there could have been some impact on riding-level campaigns and election results but that it is difficult to draw direct links between foreign interference and ballot choices.
“The Liberal Party would have been in government with or without foreign interference,” Justice Hogue writes. “In my opinion, foreign interference only manifested itself in, and could only have impacted, a handful of constituencies.”
In particular, she says that in the case of defeated Conservative MP Kenny Chiu in Vancouver’s Steveston–Richmond East riding, he was the target of “false narratives” related to his proposal to implement a foreign influence registry.
Foreign interference a ‘stain’ on Canada’s electoral system, Hogue inquiry concludes
“There is a reasonable possibility that the false narratives could have impacted the results in this riding,” she concludes.
“The events named in this report likely diminished the ability of some voters to cast an informed vote, thereby tainting the process. There may not be many so affected, but even a small number should be a concern,” she adds.
The conclusions from Justice Hogue are more closely aligned with the assessments of the Conservative Party on the impact that foreign interference had on the election than the view presented by the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau. However, she does not fully agree with the Conservatives either.
While the Prime Minister said in April “not a single riding or the result of the overall election was impacted or changed because of foreign interference,” the Conservatives had said they believed up to nine riding results were affected. In her report, Justice Hogue says that based on the evidence she has, she can’t “make such a finding.”
When former Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole raised these concerns at the inquiry, the Prime Minister accused the Conservatives of being sore losers.
Nomination of Han Dong and a failure to follow up
Canada’s spy agency raised many concerns around Liberal MP Han Dong, beginning with the nomination race that won him the Liberal candidacy in the Toronto riding of Don Valley North ahead of the 2019 election.
The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) found credible information that buses of students, linked to the People’s Republic of China, were brought in for the nomination vote and that there was intimidation of the students by Beijing-connected officials.
The riding was a safe Liberal seat and Mr. Trudeau testified that “he did not feel there was sufficient or sufficiently credible information to justify removing Mr. Dong,” Justice Hogue notes.
The Prime Minister said it was a matter that would be revisited after the election, but Justice Hogue says she hasn’t received evidence that such follow-up happened.
“This incident makes clear the extent to which nomination contests can be gateways for foreign states who wish to interfere in our democratic processes,” she writes in her report.
She said the Liberal’s nomination-race rules lack stringent eligibility criteria and the control measures “do not seem very robust.
Mr. Dong left the Liberal caucus in 2023 and is now sitting as an independent.
Diaspora groups particularly affected by foreign interference, which also undermines public confidence in democracy
Justice Hogue finds that foreign interference has a more pronounced impact on diaspora groups who are discouraged from getting involved in their communities and in the electoral process.
However, she says all Canadians are “victims of foreign interference” which has undermined public confidence in democracy. That distrust is “perhaps the greatest harm Canada has suffered as a result of foreign interference.”
She also says she is concerned by the approach taken by the senior civil servants who were responsible for monitoring and responding to foreign interference during the 2019 and 2021 general elections.
“The government must re-establish this trust by informing the public of the threat of foreign interference, and by taking real and concrete steps to detect, deter and counter it,” she concludes.
China poses the most concerns for foreign interference, Russia does not
The intelligence collected from Canada’s spy agency shows that the People’s Republic of China “stands out as a main perpetrator of foreign interference against Canada,” Justice Hogue says.
“CSIS currently views the PRC as the biggest threat to the Canadian electoral space by a significant margin, though this assessment may vary over time.”
Meantime there is much less worry about interference from Russia. Based on available intelligence, Justice Hogue says, “Russia is likely not currently a significant foreign interference threat to Canadian federal elections.”
More study to come
In several instances, Justice Hogue raises concerns in her report that she said would be subject to more study later.
For example, she says the commission would carefully examine foreign interference in nomination races in the next phase of her reporting and would also assess what government can or should do to counter disinformation and misinformation during elections.
Marieke Walsh