Clean economy transition: viable pathways to systems change

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Reaching net zero is no longer just an environmental imperative. It is an economic one – and Canada’s major trading partners and competitors are aggressively positioning themselves to win in the emerging net-zero economy.

The motivation behind Canada’s Net-Zero Forum, taking place on May 14 and 15 in Toronto, is to help focus attention on real net-zero pathways, bridge the gap between isolated approaches and ensure Canada will be globally competitive in 2050, says Dan Wicklum, CEO of the Transition Accelerator, the pan-Canadian organization holding the event. “The concept of the transition to a low-carbon society has now changed. For decades, we’ve been thinking in terms of the need to reduce emissions to combat climate change. Now, the whole world understands we need net-zero emissions, and this has become a competitiveness issue.”

Nations across the globe are racing to develop solutions and technologies enabling the move to net zero, not only for themselves but to sell to the world, he explains. “Because the stakes are so high, we need sound analyses to understand which pathways to net zero are real and which ones are smoke and mirrors.”

The consequences are substantial, says Dr. Wicklum. “If we get it right, we can compete and win at home and on the global stage. But if we follow dead-end leads, we’ll wind up losing both economically and environmentally.”

Looking to previous examples for actionable insights

The shift from emissions reduction to emissions elimination means strategies must change as the task is to fundamentally retool the Canadian and global economies.

Governments have previously regarded greenhouse gases in light of an “emissions reduction or pollution control paradigm, where the idea is to identify the lowest-cost opportunities for the biggest reduction potential to be achieved by a certain time,” says James Meadowcroft, professor in the School of Public Policy and Administration, Carleton University, and a pathways principal for the Transition Accelerator. “When you consider that it is no longer about trimming emissions – that we actually have to stop them and draw down anything that’s left over – it becomes obvious that we need fundamental systems change.”

Emissions are associated with “all the big social production activities we engage in, from how we move and house people to how we produce energy, food and goods,” he says. Energy systems have been designed with fossil fuels at their core, as are processes for producing “food and all the key materials of modern civilization, like steel, concrete, plastics and chemicals.”

Dr. Meadowcroft’s research, which is focused on transitions in large socio-technical systems, looks at how systems evolved “to see what lessons we can apply to the challenge of getting to net zero.

“Most change happens incrementally, where improvements – like adding more houses to cities or more generation stations to the electricity grid – take place over time,” he says. “But occasionally, these systems go through big step changes, that we call transitions.”

Take the introduction of the Model T Ford in the early 20th century, for example, says Dr. Meadowcroft. “When you put the Model T Ford beside a modern internal combustion engine car, they’re actually very similar. Compared to the incremental evolution of the car, the previous transition – from predominantly horse-drawn transport to the automobile – was a step change that took place over only a couple of decades in the U.S.”

Transitions typically start with a long preparation phase, where innovators and technology startups develop new technological options. After “attracting early adopters, there follows an accelerated uptake until you get a transformation of the entire system,” he explains.

However, given the urgency of climate change, concerted efforts, including policy, are needed to achieve required outcomes by specific dates, Dr. Meadowcroft emphasizes. “The litmus test for policy should not be whether it is the cheapest way of reaching the next climate goal but whether it will help drive a truly functional net-zero system.

“There are many ways to reduce emissions, but if they don’t contribute to systems change, they’re not getting us to net zero and we shouldn’t waste limited resources and leadership time in pursuing them.”

Five focus areas for transition pathways

What makes transitioning socio-technical systems challenging is that they are complex – and made up of myriad interrelated parts, Dr. Meadowcroft says. “The electricity system, for example, is more than just wires, generators and transformers – it includes pricing systems, government regulation, consumer behaviour and more. Changing it requires addressing all the social, political and economic dimensions.”

Dr. Wicklum notes that despite this complexity, “there is more certainty than uncertainty about which pathways, approaches and technologies can actually get us to net zero in many areas of the economy. The forum will bring clarity by engaging with experts from across sectors and across regions in an integrated and interactive way.”

The event is organized around areas critical to the net-zero transition, including electricity, buildings, transportation and energy carriers, and Dr. Wicklum explains that the emphasis is on distinguishing sectors “where we can and should act now from the ones we can deprioritize for action in the shorter term.”

Each sector will be scrutinized to identify specific challenges and opportunities, he says. For electricity, for example, discussions will centre on the feasibility of shifting to a completely emissions-free electricity grid and how technological and financial obstacles can be addressed.

While experts lead the sessions, the idea is to facilitate dialogue and exploration, where “at the end, people will have a good understanding about the latest strategic thinking on each of these sectors and pathways,” says Dr. Wicklum. “And then we bring these sector-specific learnings together in a session on the new economy.”

For Dr. Meadowcroft, the new economy discussion includes “a focus on the future economy – and the need to ensure Canada has jobs and thriving enterprises that can be successful in three or four decades’ time.”

A fair and timely transition

With climate change, it is important to recognize that while it is one of the biggest challenges of our time, it isn’t the only one, Dr. Meadowcroft says. “There are other issues we face in Canada. In the area of housing, for example, we have problems with supply, quality and affordability, and all these have to be considered in the quest to net zero.”

From previous transitions, “we also know that they typically come with considerable distributional consequences,” he says. “There will be winners and losers; there will be jobs that disappear and new jobs that will come, so paying attention to those at risk of being left behind is important.”

However, “it is also critical to move forward,” Dr. Meadowcroft insists. “Creating clean electricity grids, getting internal combustion engine vehicles off the road and decarbonizing buildings, these are areas where we’re ready to scale up efforts. This doesn’t mean we don’t think about areas, such as air travel, where we don’t have solutions yet, but it’s important to focus on things we can do.”

With the 2050 deadline approaching, it’s pivotal to identify sound strategies and decisions for advancing sustainability and economic resilience, and Dr. Wicklum believes the forum will make a difference.

“When participants leave the event, we want them to be able to do their job better,” he says. “Whatever role they have in their organization, from allocating investments and creating plans to leading teams, they’ll be equipped to be more strategic when they make decisions – and to advance winning strategies.”

Dr. Meadowcroft, who also sees the forum’s exploration of transition pathways as a means to inspiring timely action, sums it up with a sports analogy: “You can’t just keep passing the ball back and forth across the soccer pitch. At some point, you need to put it in the goal.”

Advertising feature produced by Randall Anthony Communications. The Globe’s editorial department was not involved.