This weekend, Africa's dictators, opposition parties and grassroots political activists all have something in common: Everyone will be watching Zimbabwe.

Daniel arap Moi, who has ruled Kenya for more than two decades, doubtless wants to see President Robert Mugabe hold on to power. So does Joseph Kabila, who inherited rule of the Congo from his father, military strongman Laurent Kabila.

"If Mugabe pulls this off, those 'men of longevity' will see it as a vindication -- not a moral one, but a practical one," said Pablo Idahosa, co-ordinator of the Africa Studies program at York University in Toronto.

Democracy movements across the continent will see things differently. Madagascar's opposition, which is currently operating a shadow government because it says December's election was hijacked, would like to see international intervention in Zimbabwe. Opposition movements in Kenya, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast are watching too.

Many of Zimbabwe's neighbours are worried not only that events could spill across their borders, but that regional aid initiatives could be threatened if Mr. Mugabe steals the election.

Yet despite all that is at stake, the leaders of Africa's most powerful countries have been largely silent on events in Zimbabwe. At the recent Commonwealth meeting in Australia, for instance, they openly balked at attempts to take strong measures against Mr. Mugabe.

Although these leaders may have had forceful discussions about Zimbabwe behind closed doors, they are "hesitant to be very vocal in public," said Salih Booker, director of the Washington-based advocacy organization Action Africa.

"There is a hesitancy by African leaders to appear to sanction intervention in the internal politics of another African country by what would have been the major white members of the Commonwealth," said Cranford Pratt, a retired professor of African politics at the University of Toronto. "African self-esteem is partly on the line here."

Prof. Idahosa chalks the silence up to "testiness about how this is playing out in terms of race."

Most observers agree that there is strong feeling in many parts of Africa that events in Zimbabwe have attracted international attention only because of Mr. Mugabe's persecution of a small group of white landowners.

Elections in Zambia and Malawi were recently stolen using much the same tactics that Mr. Mugabe has employed, but there was no international outcry; there was no white problem with a white minority in either country.

Elected leaders in countries such as Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania might privately prefer to see Mr. Mugabe accept a fair election and then step down if he loses. But they probably weren't about to risk the political cost of speaking out against a man still seen as a hero of the African independence movement, certainly not on a stage with white Commonwealth leaders.

There is also a large degree of "glass-house syndrome" behind the silence from the big African powers, Mr. Booker says.

"There are leaders who do not want to expose the inconsistencies of their own democratic practices."

Zimbabwe's nervous neighbours

Nigeria

There is widespread dissatisfaction with the government elected two years ago after years of military dictatorship and fears that President Olusegun Obasanjo will try to choke his opposition in a vote set for next year.

Democratic Republic of Congo

Zimbabwe has about 3,000 soldiers helping unelected President Joseph Kabila fight rebels who oppose his rule.

Zambia, Malawi

Recent elections were unfair but the victors won international acceptance. Opposition parties would take heart if justice is done in Zimbabwe.

Madagascar

Both presidential candidates claimed victory in December's vote and are running rival governments after the unfair election raised the spectre of civil war.

South Africa

Southern Africa's most stable democracy is home to Zimbabwean refugees, and like Zimbabwe faces land-ownership issues.

Sierra Leone

Holds a run-off vote next week for presidential election marred by violence and allegations of corruption.