How EVs compare to gas cars on emissions over their total lifespan

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With electric vehicles gaining more range, mostly owing to larger batteries, some critics contend that EVs are worse for the environment than gas-powered ones.

One of the claims is that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) produce nearly as much greenhouse gases as gas cars over their lifespans – if you include the emissions from mining minerals to make batteries.

But, if you compare a BEV to a gas car over its whole life – from mining for materials to recycling the car once it’s off the road – a BEV is responsible for a third, or less, emissions than a gas vehicle, multiple studies show.

“It’s true that [BEVs] are more energy intensive to manufacture because of the batteries,” said Joanna Kyriazis, Ottawa-based director of public affairs with Clean Energy Canada, an energy think tank at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, B.C. “But because they have no tailpipe emissions, they very quickly break even [on CO2] emissions and then come out ahead of gas vehicles.”

A 2022 study from Ford Motors and the University of Michigan found that light-duty BEVs, which include sedans, SUVs and pickup trucks, rack up 64 per cent less in greenhouse gas emissions over their lifespan than gas vehicles.

A 2021 study by the International Council on Clean Transportation found that emissions over the lifetime of average medium-size BEVs registered today are considerably lower than comparable gasoline cars – by 66 to 69 per cent in Europe and 60 to 68 per cent in the United States.

But the batteries in BEVs do pose some different environmental risks than gas and diesel vehicles. For instance, we’ll need to expand lithium mining to meet battery demand and we’ll also need to ensure that batteries are properly recycled at the end of their useful lives.

“People are right to make sure that this new technology lives up to the hype,” said Cedric Smith, director of transportation with Pollution Probe, a Toronto-based environmental non-profit. “That being said, every study I’ve seen shows that BEVs are far better for the environment.”

Breaking even?

So, how long does a BEV have to be on the road before it accounts for less overall emissions than a gas-powered car?

That Ford study found that BEVs break even after up to 1.3 years for sedans, 1.6 years for SUVs and 1.3 years for pickup trucks, “based on the average U.S. grid and [average] vehicle miles travelled.”

A 2021 Reuters analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago showed that a BEV will have to drive about 21,725 kilometres before it comes out ahead of a gas car.

Of course, this break-even number varies from state to state and province to province, based on the kinds of energy used to power the electrical grid. In the United States, about 60 per cent of electricity is generated using fossil fuels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In contrast, Ontario generates about 80 per cent of its energy from nuclear and hydro combined, with just 10 per cent from natural gas, according to the Independent Electricity System Operator, a Crown corporation responsible for operating the electricity market in the province.

The proportion generated from fossil fuels will lessen as more batteries and cars are manufactured using renewable electricity, including wind and solar power – and as more cars on the road get charged using renewable electricity, Ms. Kyriazis said.

“BEVs’ environmental performance has nowhere to go but up as we’re phasing out CO2-emitting electricity,” Ms. Kyriazis said. “But when you buy a gas car, the amount of emissions that you’re going to be producing over its lifetime is just going to stay static – or probably get worse as the vehicle gets older and is running less efficiently.”

Sarah McBain, a senior analyst with the Pembina Institute, a Calgary-based clean energy think tank, said Canadian studies show EVs produce lower lifetime CO2 emissions than gas vehicles now even in provinces that use coal and natural gas to generate electricity.

For example, in Alberta – where, in 2022, 82 per cent of power came from natural gas and coal – BEVs still produce 16 per cent lower total emissions than gas cars, Ms. Kyriazis said.

That difference will “get greater and greater over time” if Alberta, which has said it will be phasing out coal from the grid by the end of this year, adds more renewable energy, Ms. Kyriazis said.

Pembina’s McBain added that gas cars also emit pollutants including nitrogen dioxide, ozone and fine particulate matter, that contribute to smog.

“The rise in electric vehicles on Canada’s roads will help reduce adverse health effects and also contribute to significant savings in health-care costs,” Ms. McBain said in an e-mail.

EVs and the culture wars

In the United States, at least, BEVs are now part of the culture wars between the political right and left, Ms. Kyriazis said. That has included some inaccurate claims about their environmental impact compared to gas-powered vehicles.

“People have no idea how bad [BEV production] is going to be also for the environment,” former U.S. president Donald Trump said at a campaign stop in Detroit in September.

“[In the U.S.], critics are scrutinizing the environmental performance of [BEVs], but I don’t think they’re thinking about the environmental performance of gas cars,” Ms. Kyriazis said. “I’m hoping that this polarization [over BEVs] is dissipated by the rise in BEV manufacturing, including in Republican states.”